Betting Odds Brett Kavanaugh
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Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who went through the mother of all wringers in his confirmation last year, is making headlines again.
Online betting odds suggest Kavanaugh gets votes. Here's how you can get in line for the COVID-19 vaccine. Prior to Sunday's second allegation, Kavanaugh stood at 5/12, an implied probability of 71 percent, to be confirmed by the Senate on Las Vegas betting site Bovada. But by Monday those odds had. Odds Brett Kavanaugh Will Be Confirmed as the Next Supreme Court Justice.Odds have changed to YES (+105) and NO (-135) Kavanaugh is being accused of attempted rape from when he was a teenager, and his accuser is expected to testify this week. Now a second accuser claims that Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her when he was at Yale.
Of course, despite what the big red “Breaking News” tags on every media outlet across the country want you to believe, the newest Kavanaugh accusations aren’t actually new. It turns out that they were known to investigators – and the media – throughout the justice’s original vetting process.
Recently, Bovada posted some political betting odds dealing with the next justice to leave the Supreme Court. With multiple Justices fast approaching retirement age, it’s highly likely the winner of the 2020 presidential election will decide the fate of the judicial branch for decades to come. PredictIT chart shows odds improving on likelihood that Judge Brett Kavanaugh will receive the votes to get confirmed for the Supreme Court by the U.S. Meanwhile, you’d get 16 cents to.
In fact, the alleged victim in the case has repeatedly claimed to have no recollection of the event in question. And despite being continuously harassed by investigators and reporters for a solid year, she’s made it clear that she has no interest in speaking with them.
Helpfully, partisan political operatives have been more than happy to fill in the gaps of what supposedly happened at some teenage party a lifetime ago.
But as ever, history repeats, and this week’s moral outrage – real or fake – is palpable on both sides of the aisle.
As such, sportsbooks are getting in on the action. Of course, these books don’t really care what Kavanaugh did or didn’t do. They only care about giving an eager public the opportunity to bet on the outcome of the latest full-court impeachment press. (Incidentally, “impeachment” seems well-positioned to be the American Dialect Society’s 2019 Word of the Year.)
BetOnline has odds on whether or not Kavanaugh will be impeached by the end of the year, as well as whether or not he’ll just resign to get away from the unending libelous mudslinging of modern political theater.
Will Brett Kavanaugh be impeached by the end of 2019?
- Yes +1000
- No -2500
Will Brett Kavanaugh resign by the end of 2019?
- Yes +500
- No -1000
While the Kavanaugh scandal isn’t new – and though no new information has been unearthed in this conveniently-timed redux – the larger hope was that the public had simply forgotten the events of last year and would thus embrace the new media hysterics.
After all, it’s been just shy of a year since Kavanaugh took his place as an Associate Supreme Court Justice, and the madding crowd has a short memory.
So now, Kavanaugh is facing recycled accusations about various unprovable things that may or may not have happened at some undefined point a long time ago.
The bombshell (or dud, depending upon your perspective) reported by the New York Times was quickly proved to be an unethical smear job, leading to retracted tweets and “updated” articles (i.e. articles with salient, narrative-breaking details edited back in).
Brett Kavanaugh Twitter
Kavanaugh, ironically, has been reliably centrist or center-left with his votes during his young career on the Supreme Court bench. Nevertheless, he remains one of the chief bogeymen among the left-leaning media and the Democratic side of Congress.
As in 2018, President Donald Trump quickly came to Kavanaugh’s defense this time around, issuing a series of tweets on the subject. Trump, obviously, is unafraid to defend his allies. Their scandals are unlikely to stick to the Teflon Don.
Commence #TrumpTweetStorm:
Brett Kavanaugh should start suing people for libel, or the Justice Department should come to his rescue. The lies being told about him are unbelievable. False Accusations without recrimination. When does it stop? They are trying to influence his opinions. Can’t let that happen!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 15, 2019
Can’t let Brett Kavanaugh give Radical Left Democrat (Liberal Plus) Opinions based on threats of Impeaching him over made up stories (sound familiar?), false allegations, and lies. This is the game they play. Fake and Corrupt News is working overtime! #ProtectKavanaugh
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 15, 2019
“The New York Times walks back report on Kavanaugh assault claim.” @foxandfriends The one who is actually being assaulted is Justice Kavanaugh – Assaulted by lies and Fake News! This is all about the LameStream Media working with their partner, the Dems.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 16, 2019
“What’s happening to Justice Kavanaugh is a disgrace. This guy is not a good man, he is a great man. He has to go to his church with his family while these terrible reports are being written about him, a disgrace!” Dan Bongino @foxandfriends
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 16, 2019
Just Out: “Kavanaugh accuser doesn’t recall incident.” @foxandfriends DO YOU BELIEVE WHAT THESE HORRIBLE PEOPLE WILL DO OR SAY. They are looking to destroy, and influence his opinions – but played the game badly. They should be sued!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 16, 2019
And so on.
Meanwhile, as Trump offers outspoken support of his SCOTUS nominee, he’s also playing to his base in a political fight of his own. As with Kavanaugh, impeachment is the issue of the day.
However, after former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski was aimlessly and embarrassingly grilled on Capitol Hill this week, Trump’s impeachment odds have grown considerably longer than they were before.
As expected, the week’s events have had no appreciable negative effect on Trump’s presidential election odds, with the incumbent still sitting high atop the betting boards.
2020 Presidential Election Odds
Via BetOnline
- Donald Trump +100
- Elizabeth Warren +400
- Joe Biden +700
- Bernie Sanders +900
- Andrew Yang +1200
- Kamala Harris +2000
- Pete Buttigieg +3300
- Tulsi Gabbard +5000
- Cory Booker +6600
- Beto O’Rourke +6600
- Amy Klobuchar +10000
- Mike Pence +10000
- Mark Sanford +10000
- Tom Steyer +10000
- Julian Castro +15000
- Jay Inslee +15000
- Marianne Williamson +15000
- Michael Bennet +25000
- Bill de Blasio +25000
- John Delaney +25000
- Tim Ryan +25000
- Bovada recently posted new odds on the next justice to leave the Supreme Court.
- Donald Trump has nominated two justices during his first term – Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch – giving conservatives a majority of the Court.
- Whoever is elected in 2020 will likely have two more vacancies to fill; if Trump is nominated and Ruth Bader Ginsberg retires, Republicans will own the SCOTUS for the next generation.
| Supreme Court Justice | Next to Leave SCOTUS |
| Ruth Bader Ginsberg | -275 |
| Clarence Thomas | +325 |
| Stephen Breyer | +800 |
| John Roberts | +2500 |
| Sonia Sotomayor | +2500 |
| Samuel Alito | +5000 |
| Brett Kavanaugh | +10000 |
| Elena Kagan | +10000 |
| Neil Gorsuch | +10000 |
Recently, Bovada posted some political betting odds dealing with the next justice to leave the Supreme Court. With multiple Justices fast approaching retirement age, it’s highly likely the winner of the 2020 presidential election will decide the fate of the judicial branch for decades to come.
In 2018, Donald Trump replaced retired Justice Anthony Kennedy – once considered the “median justice” — with Brett Kavanaugh, who is considerably more conservative. This moved Chief Justice John Roberts – previously to the right of center — to the median position, pushing the entire “Overton Window” of the Supreme Court further right.
People have long speculated about the next vacancy, with most expecting it to be created by Ruth Bader Ginsberg. In fact, for years, there have been concerns regarding the 87-year-old’s health. Some believe the DNC is shielding Ginsberg – a liberal judge — from the public eye, in hopes of delaying her retirement – at least until the 2020 general election.
Otherwise, Donald Trump is sure to be gifted another appointment of his own choosing. This would give conservatives on the Supreme Court a numerical advantage for decades to come. Clarence Thomas and Stephen Breyer are also getting up there in age and expected to call it quits soon.
Thomas is already conservative, but Trump getting to replace both Ginsberg and Breyer would put Republicans firmly in control of the Court for the next several decades. The President’s last two appointees are both in their 50s, so there’s clearly a plan in place to maximize the value of these vacancies.
That’s why this is such a crucial election year for the Democrats. If their nominee wins, Bader and Breyer can retire without setting liberals back for a generation. Then, if Thomas chooses to step down as well, the Court may return to its pre-Kavanaugh balance.
The Most Likely Retirees
Justice Since: August 10, 1993
The odds-on favorite to be the next justice to step down is also the oldest. Ruth Bader Ginsberg is 87 years old and has served on the Court for almost 27 years. Along with Justice Sotomayor, she is one of the most liberal voices serving.
With the coronavirus pandemic primarily killing people over 65-years-old – a demographic that includes six of the nine Justices – special safety precautions are being taken. ABC News reported that: “when the court held its regularly scheduled private conference Friday morning, some of the justices participated remotely, and those who were in the building did not engage in the tradition of shaking hands,” according to court spokeswoman Kathy Arberg.
For over a year now, rumors have swirled about RBG’s health. Many right-wing pundits have publicly questioned whether long-time women’s rights advocate is still fit for the job, or if the Democrats are helping to keep her in place until they can win back the White House.
Betting Odds Brett Kavanaugh Wall Street Journal
So far, Ginsberg’s been a trooper, but retirement can’t be delayed much longer. No matter who wins the 2020 election, she’s unlikely to stay in the Supreme Court for another whole term.
Age: 71
Justice Since: October 23, 1991
Bovada listed Clarence Thomas as the second likeliest to retire at +325 odds. Thomas is the most conservative member of the Court. If Donald Trump wins reelection, the controversial Georgia native may feel more comfortable stepping down sooner, knowing he’ll be replaced by a judge with similar political leanings.
Justice Since: August 3, 1994
Justice Breyer is the second-oldest member of the Supreme Court. Another Clinton appointee, chosen one year after Ruth Bader Ginsberg; Breyer is considered to have a liberal interpretation of the law – though he’s less left-leaning than RBG, Sotomayor, and Kagan.
While I strongly expect Ginsberg to be the next to leave the SCOTUS, Justice Stephen Breyer may present the most betting value. At 81-years-old, and in the midst of a highly contagious pandemic, you can’t beat his +800 moneyline odds.
One unfortunately placed droplet of coronavirus-infected saliva/snot, and that’s a wrap. You’d never want to wish for such a thing, but he’s still a smart bet.
My Picks
Betting Odds Brett Kavanaugh Twitter
I’m torn between two bets.
Ruth Bader Ginsberg is the smart play – if everything goes according to plan, she’ll be stepping down either after the election in November (if Trump wins) or after the next Presidential inauguration (if a Democrat wins).
At the same time, I love Stephen Breyer at +800!
Despite being the second oldest justice, the San Francisco native is behind both RBG and Clarence Thomas in the betting odds, paying out at 8-to-1! As unpleasant a thought as it might be, you just can’t beat that value – especially not with an airborne coronavirus causing a pandemic throughout the country.
I believe the best play here is to make your decision based on your predictions for the 2020 presidential election.
Betting Odds Brett Kavanaugh
If you have Trump winning a second term, Ruth Bader Ginsberg is the easy choice – she’ll probably retire in mid-November at that rate. Under those circumstances, I think Breyer will do everything in his power to remain on the Supreme Court until 2025.
Trump losing would push RBG to keep her seat until the new administration enters the White House in January 2021. At that point, it might be a race to see whether Breyer or Ginsberg calls it quits first.