How To Bet On An Nfl Game
NFL Betting Systems: The Definitive Guide to the Top Strategies
- Football Betting Nfl
- How To Bet On An Nfl Game
- How To Bet On Nfl Games Online
- How To Bet On Nfl Games Legally
How big is the football betting market?
Forget baseball.
Now, specifically regarding NFL betting, it’s actually tougher than most sports to determine if you have an edge since it takes longer to actually bet a significant amount of games to give you any real insight. You could easily get very lucky (or unlucky) for a season and assume you are much better (or worse) than you might be. An NFL game is installed with a combined point total for the two teams, for which a bet is placed on the over or under total of the number. Team & Player Props - There are two types of proposition betting.
America’s favorite pastime is football.
The proof is in the pudding. And the Vegas sportsbooks. Football is by far the most bet on sport in the United States. To be specific, the Super Bowl.
This past year alone, the American Gaming Association estimated bettors to have wagered upwards of $4.7 billion dollars on the nation’s most-watched sporting event.
Despite an ongoing federal ban on sports betting outside Nevada (and sparingly in certain other states), the majority of that money comes from illegal bets placed outside of the Sagebrush State.
That’s right.
Only $132M of that $4.7B is considered legal.
And yet, betting for the sport continues to increase with each passing year. According to Jimmy Vaccaro, a prominent Las Vegas bookmaker, Americans wager upwards of $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined.
That being said, the majority of bettors fail to turn a profit.
According to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of Beat the Sports Books(Cardoza Publishing 2005), throughout an entire NFL season, “fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit. Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”
Why do most NFL betting systems fail?
Well a standard bet requires bettors to wage $11 for every $10 they want to win. The extra $1 is called the juice.
Were it not for the juice, things might be different.
The average bettor might have a chance at real success. But as it stands, the odds and the money favor the bookmakers. A sports bettor has to select 52.4 percent winners simply to break even. But each year, the average Joe wins only 50 percent of the bets they make.
Treat NFL betting for what it is — a sophisticated network of constantly changing data points pouring through equally sophisticated predictive algorithms —
So it’s an uphill battle for most bettors dipping their toes in the waters of sports gambling.
The trick is to take things seriously.
Treat betting for what it is — a sophisticated network of constantly changing data points pouring through equally sophisticated predictive algorithms — and you might just have a chance at going from square to sharp.
But don’t be overwhelmed.
If you’re reading this, chances are you’re a serious bettor looking to make some well-informed decisions to take your football betting to another level.
Before we get into the fundamentals of NFL betting, let’s first take a look at the basics of our very own predictive wager system.
Our Betting Methodology and System
The Simulator is built based on a predictive model created by a doctor with an extensive background in mathematics, psychology, and operations research.
This individual has worked with multiple professional and collegiate sports organizations, player agents, sports data agencies and a top-ranked fantasy website. His work with professional sports organizations includes optimizing scout travel, in-depth player analysis and lineup configurations.
Correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time
Among his greatest innovations was the discovery of neural networks as a powerful tool for sports betting.
A neural network is defined as a computer system modeled on the human brain and nervous system.
Using this technology, the good doctor found that, “the best networks were able to correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time.”
While the model was initially developed around NBA betting, it has since been applied to other sports — chief among them, the NFL.
What makes the Sports Analytics Simulator unique is that it relies not on data inputs (statistics) from previous seasons, but on continuous game-to-game updates.
The Simulator’s specific algorithms run through up to forty different stat categories to create the most efficient model possible.
From this model, we derive our picks for each game. And the best part is, our system is a living, breathing predictive model — it possesses machine learning capacities that allow to detect trends and potentials that we mere humans could only dream of finding.
For more information, check out this handy dandy video on how it works.
NFL Betting Systems
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s talk about the fundamentals of NFL Betting. Essentially there are six different ways to bet on the NFL. Let’s run through them shall we?
NFL Spread Bet
The first and most popular form of NFL betting is spread-based. Which is pretty straightforward.
Bookmakers set a spread with a favorite and an underdog. In order for you to win on a bet of this nature, one team must cover the spread — so if the spread is -7 in favor of the Chiefs over the Steelers, the Chiefs must win by seven points or more.
Whereas in order for the Steelers to cover the spread, they must either lose by less than seven points, or win. To make it simpler, the spread gives the underdog a ‘head start’.
In this case, the Steelers have a +7 head start in points to kick off the game. Pretty straightforward stuff.
Now, if you simply want to bet on the winner of the game you’ll want to place a…
Moneyline Bet
Moneyline betting is an equally common form of sports betting as spread bets. The difference is that with moneylines, bookmakers will set lines representing the favorite and the underdog.
Let’s go back to this Chiefs-Steelers matchup.
Let’s say the Chiefs have a favored line of -150 and the Steelers have an underdog line of +125.
What this means is that in order to win a hundred dollars on the Chiefs, you must wage $150.
As for the underdogs, if you wage $100 you will win $125. So that’s that.
NFL Totals Bet
NFL totals betting is rather self-exploratory. Also known as over/under, this form of betting involves placing a wager on the total number of points scored by both teams combined in a game.
Let’s say bookmakers set an over/under of 55 points for the Chiefs and Steelers.
Your job as a bettor is to decide whether the score will be… over or under 55 points.
NFL Prop Bet
A prop bet is a special kind of bet that has nothing to do with the outcome or final score of a game.
Prop bets come in many different forms.
Some of them are player-based — how many yards or touchdowns a specific player scores. Some of them are based in live betting, i.e. if a team scores on a specific drive.
During the Super Bowl you’ll see all sorts of fun prop bets like coin toss wagers.
NFL Parlay Bet
You might have seen a parlay bet featured in the film, Silver Linings Playbook, (or read it in the book), wherein Pat Solitano’s father, Patrizio Sr., places a bet on the Eagles-Cowboys game and the judge outcome of Pat and Tiffany’s dance number in a local dance-off.
In order for Patrizio to win the bet, the Eagles must win their game against Dallas and Tiffany and Pat score 5 out of 10 in their dance competition.
This is what’s known as a parlay bet, wherein various games and outcomes are rubber-banded together into one single bet.
In order for the bettor to win the wager, all outcomes must unfold accordingly. This might involve a handful of other bets such as a totals bet and a moneyline bet.
In the NFL, this is a common form of betting to get more bang for your buck.
NFL Teaser Bet
A teaser bet is a form of parlay that involves a combination of two to ten NFL wagers in which you adjust the point spreads and/or totals in your favor in exchange for a lower payout.
When your teaser includes a point spread, you have the option to decrease the spread for the favorite or increase the spread for the underdog.
When you’re teasing a total, you can increase the under or decrease the over.
Like a parlay, winning the bet is dependent on all of the wagers winning.
Standard teasers are 6, 6.5 and 7-point. There’s also a sweetheart teaser, which offers you the choice to tease a line by 10 or 13 points.
It’s basically a parlay with a little bit of zazz.
The Most Important NFL Betting Stats
Now, knowing the forms of NFL betting is great but without the statistics to back up your wager, you’re S.O.L.
So what are the most important stats for successfully determining winners in an NFL game?
Well, it might not be what you think.
According to a prominent Vegas oddsmaker, one of the most integral statistics for betting the NFL is… duh duh duh dahhh… pass yards per attempt.
Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents
In a passer’s league this makes a lot of sense.
Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents. Taking this little known or acknowledged stat into account in your handicapping will no doubt help you find success in your waging.
The other big stat to consider in placing your bets is turnovers.
Seems pretty simple.
The team who averages more turnovers per game is likely to give up more scoring opportunities and thus the whole game.
As we’ve said, the Sports Analytics Simulator utilizes up-to-date, real time game-to-game statistics to establish the most accurate predictions week in and week out. So it goes without saying that our model analyzes far more than just turnovers and passing yards per attempt.
Nonetheless, betting in any case involves a level of intuition. Therefore, even if you subscribe to the Simulator, it would behoove you to do your own research. Check out important stats. Take your time with each pick. Choose wisely based on time-tested methods and patterns.
Factors for NFL picks?
Aside from the aforementioned factors, you’ve got to consider other dynamics. For instance, what is the most pivotal quality of any team in the NFL?
I’ll give you a hint. It’s not a good quarterback. Teams with good quarterbacks flounder all the time in the NFL.
If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too. And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five
What really matters is the team’s offensive line.
Think the 2016-17 Dallas Cowboys. Sure, they failed to win a Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback and running back. But the majority of their success last season was owed directly to the strength of their offensive line.
If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too. And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five.
Football Betting Nfl
In order to successfully bet the NFL, you’ve got to consider these more understated and under-appreciated factors — such as a strong O-Line.
You’ve got to take it game by game and know that in this league, fortunes shift in an instant. There’s no perfect formula for effective betting.
But that doesn’t mean there aren’t resources and numbers at your disposal to help you get the edge on oddsmakers.
With that said, let’s explore some of the biggest mistakes that squares (amateur bettors) often make when betting on the NFL.
Biggest mistakes with NFL betting
Money Management
The biggest mistake is money management.
If you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.
This seems pretty obvious but you’d be surprised (or maybe not) at the trouble amateur bettors have with this one.
It’s simple.
How To Bet On An Nfl Game
Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose.
That means knowing what your bankroll is for a given season and being disciplined with your money. “Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” says Jimmy Vaccaro. “If you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”
Shop the Numbers
Another big mistake amateurs make is that they don’t account for a variety of numbers.
No sportsbook is exactly the same as another.
Lines, differentials, totals, spreads will all look different depending on where you look. In the NFL, you might not think that .5 points is a significant. But you’d be wrong. So shop the numbers.
Don’t say yes to the first line you see.
Shopping the numbers will give you a better idea of potential outcomes and allow you to make a well-rounded decision on your bets.
What else? Well, let’s start with something basic.
Bet the Underdog at Home
There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home
You might think betting on the favorite is the obvious option every time but you’d be wrong. “There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. “Teams play inspired ball at home.
How To Bet On Nfl Games Online
Slim underdogs regularly win outright.
Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”
To revisit a favorite example, the Chiefs tend to claim the edge in the majority of their home games, no matter their status on the betting lines.
Why?
Because there’s magic at Arrowhead.
There’s more to lose when you’re playing before 150,000 of your fans’ scrutinizing eyeballs.
Here’s a list of some of the other worst betting mistakes you can make:
- Chasing your bets
- Getting vindictive
- Trying to win back losses
- Go after big wins to recoup losses
- Overly-promising wagers.
It’s like a night of heavy drinking. It might sound tempting beforehand. But the next day you’re likely to have some regret.
Remember that betting is a mathematician’s game.
There’s no large place for emotion in this game.
When it comes to the NFL, upon which more bets are placed than any other sport in America, that goes double. The oddsmakers have one job — and that’s to know their shit.
The key to beating them is knowing yours too.
How to Make Your NFL Bets
There are a few ways that you make NFL bets. You can place your wagers online, which many currently do. You may also make them at a land-based sportsbook in places such as Las Vegas. Some bettors also utilize the phone.
By far the Internet has become the chosen way for many to bet on the NFL. It’s fast, easy and convenient. There are hundreds of online sportsbooks from which you may choose. Some sports bettors give little thought as to which online book they decide to use. They may look at two to three and then pick one.
But just as NFL betting is a process, finding the right sportsbook for your purposes is also a process. Doing the proper research and analysis before game time is important, but it’s also essential to do the same type of research and analysis prior to picking a sportsbook. You should not pick a book just because it looks appealing.
A sportsbook may have exciting graphics, great looking babes and an excellent ranking in Google. But does that mean it’s right for you? Does that make it a book that pays out quickly? Does that mean it covers the NFL? The answer is “no.”
There are a few basic things you need to consider when it comes to choosing a book for your NFL bets. It is important overall that you find a book that is reliable when it comes to taking your bets, when paying out and when transferring cash in and out of your account. It must be safe and secure and offer great customer support. Bettors in the U.S. focusing on the NFL need to locate a book that offers a range of professional football bets and that will also take Americans.
The longer a book has been around the better the possibility that it’s a good place to wager. There’s a lot of competition for the betting dollar and those sites that continue to thrive are doing something right. With the NFL, you want a book that posts early lines and lines that are competitive.
Also, you’ll want a provider that offers a range of deposit and withdrawal methods. Basically, you are looking for a book that makes banking as easy and effortless as possible. Various methods of seeking out help are also preferred such as an 800-phone number, live chat and email. If you have a problem or question, you want to be able to contact them at any time, 24/7.
Once you’ve found at least five books that satisfy these basics, you’re going to need to determine what your specific priorities are in a sportsbook. Do you want a book that has the best NFL lines and odds? If the best lines and odds are important, then take some time to compare various books by going to our NFL sportsbook page. There you’ll get a good sense of how some of the top sportsbooks on the Internet set their odds.
If prop and future bets are important, you’ll find that some sites offer a lot more in this area than others. Do you have another sport other than the NFL that you bet a lot? If so, is it covered at the various books you’re considering? Or do you want a book that also gives you the option of engaging in live NFL betting? If minimum bets are important, you’ll find that these can vary a lot. One site may offer a $5.00 minimum, while another $10.00. Maximum bets are also different from site to site.
How To Bet On Nfl Games Legally
Maybe a large sign up bonus is important to you? You’ll find some, those that are doing quite well, that will offer new members little to nothing and others, often newer books looking for new members, that will award generous bonuses. If that’s the case, don’t immediately decide to go with the site that has the biggest bonus.
One site may offer a 100% match on up to $1,000 and another may be giving 150% on up to $300. With the first book, you’re getting $1,000 in free cash and the second $450. Let’s say all of the basic features you’re looking for are the same on each book. You may think it’s best to sign up with the site that’s offering the most money. But this is not necessarily true.
First, if you have $300 to deposit and nothing more then the second site is preferred as they are offering more cash. Also, check to see how much you have to wager before you can clear your bonus and how it will be given out. Sites require that you wager a certain amount before they will give you the matching cash.
If the first site requires that you play through 20 times the bonus amount and the second 30 times the amount, which will you choose? If depositing the maximum at each site, the second book is the better deal despite the fact that you have to spend 10 times more before getting your cash.
With the first you’re required to bet 20 x $1,000 or $20,000 to get your bonus. The second makes you bet 30 x $450 or $13,500. Thus, you’d select the second bonus. (By the way, if you were going to just deposit $300 in either account, then the first book is the better choice. Although it pays $150 less in bonus cash, it also requires you bet far less to clear it—$9,000, which is $4,500 less than the second book.)
Once you’ve selected your sportsbook (and by the way many people go with two or three, betting at the one that has the best deal on a given game), you’ll need to become a member, which means downloading the software, installing it, creating an account and funding your account. Although the amount of time it takes is negligible, it’s best to do it sooner than later, as setting up funding may take some time if you don’t already have an eWallet or another manner of transferring funds.
When you have everything in place, you simply go to the NFL betting area, select the game and types of bets you’re going to make and decide on how much you’re going to wager. As the games end, your account will either be credited if you win or the book will keep your cash if you lose.
When you’re in Las Vegas, you’ll find the basic process it the same but you’ll be surrounded by a bunch of sports bettors, standing in line to make your NFL bets and placing your wagers with a real person. Before going to a Vegas sportsbook, it’s important that you know what you are doing and how the betting process works.
Also, if you’re not familiar with the sportsbook, it’s a good idea to go there ahead of time and check out the features, options and ambience. When at a land-based book you’ll be expected to behave a certain way. Here are five basic guidelines for wagering at a Vegas book.
Before placing a NFL bet, you need to know all of the correct terms. Also, understanding how the odds listing works, such as knowing what the rotation number is and how a stake is expressed, is important. If you cannot look at NFL odds and explain each part of the listing, you’re not ready to go to a land-based book.
The second guideline involves knowing what you are going to do. Prior to betting, you’ll need to know the rotation number of the club on which you’re wagering (you’ll use it instead of the team name when betting), how much you’re wagering and the type of bet you’re making. Before going to the betting window, you want to know all of these things. Don’t stand at the window and hold up other bettors by making your decision there.
Here’s an etiquette guideline to use when winning. If a bookie offers you advice on a wager and you win big, you should tip him. If you win $600 on his advice, then give the person who offered you that great advice $60. A 10% gratuity is standard on a winning tip.
It’s bad manners to boast when you win. There are people around you who lost their bets and others who even though they did win may have whished they bet more. Some sports bettors may have dug themselves into a huge hole and your bragging is just rubbing salt in the wound. When you win do so with humility and grace.
The final guideline, like the prior one, also involves sharing information. It’s bad manners to ask another bettor how they did. Either way, whether they’ve won or lost, you’re putting them in a difficult situation. Additionally, it’s bad form to give another bettor advice when they have not asked for it. Playing the part of the bragging expert is a great way to make enemies with winners and losers.
Use the information in this article when preparing to find an online sportsbook for your NFL wagers or when venturing to a land-based sportsbook. When you’re deciding at which books you’re going to bet be sure to choose one or more that fit the criteria that are important to you. A sportsbook, no matter how great it looks, is no good unless it fits your needs.