Nfl Betting Cards
We ended the season last week with a 4-1-1 record on best bets. As mentioned last week in this article, don’t ever just assume the teams in a must-win situation come out with an automatic win and cover. Houston with the cover and Jacksonville with a strong performance and a breakaway run and 2-point conversion away from a potential win.
The Half-Point parlay card is the most popular type of card in Las Vegas, and will offer payoffs ranging from 6.1 for 1 on a 3-selection parlay to 2,500for 1 on a 12-selection parlay. All point spreads use half points, eliminating the possibility of a tie. Teaser card On a Teaser card, the point spreads differ from those o the Half-Point card.
Before we discuss the Wild Card round of the playoffs, a quick recap of the 2020 regular season. This was clearly the year of the underdog as they finished the season at 55% ats, the best performance since 2006 when dogs hit at a 57% ats clip.
The home/road ats splits ended up virtually even but from a straight-up perspective, home teams only won at a clip just under 51%. Home teams barely edged road teams in win margin which essentially tells us that there was no such thing as a home field advantage this season.
- VIEW FOOTBALL PARLAY CARD SAMPLES. 2-,3-, and 4-card per sheet formats. Parlay and Teaser options. 1- and 2-sided formats. 8.5 inch, 11 inch, and 14 inch card options. Whole number and half point card options: Ties Lose and Ties Push. All parlay card formats come in.
- Get todays Sports Betting Sheets from South Point and Circa Sports sportsbooks in Las Vegas to see the odds from MLB, NHL, NFL, NCAA, NBA and more sports.
After starting the season hot with an 88-66 record, Overs ended up finishing with a 126-125-5 clip against Unders. Before the season started, in this article, I preached about how this season could mimic the 2011 strike-shortened offseason with plenty of points early in the season, with many over being hit, then markets adjusting and unders coming up strong at the end of the season. We definitely saw something similar this season as well.
In terms of the upcoming Wild Card round, I thought it would be important to hit a couple of trends that could impact, not only this weekend’s games, but potentially future playoff games as well. Beware of backing large road favorites. It’s an extremely small sample size but there have been five home underdogs of >4 points in any round of the NFL playoffs, and all five covered and three of the five won outright.
In fact, all three of the largest home underdogs (2000 New Orleans Saints over the Rams, 2010 Seattle Seahawks over the New Orleans Saints, and the 2011 Denver Broncos over the Pittsburgh Steelers) won outright.
When it comes to QBs making their first playoff starts, fading those QBs has historically been profitable. First time playoff QBs starting against another QB who is not making their first playoff start, have gone 13-32-1 ats and 15-31 straight up since 2002.
Wild Card Bets
Indianapolis Colts +7 -120 vs Buffalo Bills
This line is clearly inflated based on the Bills’ recent run of wins and covers (six straight). They’ve been excellent, but this line is interesting considering in Week 12 they were only favored by 4.5 over the Chargers, favored by six in Denver in Week 15 and favored by seven in New England just two weeks ago. So this line is either inferring that the Colts are rated close to the same as Denver and New England or, the most likely reason, that the market has been so way off with the Bills that they are making bettors pay the tax to back Buffalo.
The Bills have played five playoff teams and have gone 3-2 straight up and have a point differential of -11 points. Even if you want to excuse the KC and Titans bad losses since they were in the middle of multiple weeks of Covid issues, they still only beat the Rams by three on a last-second touchdown and were trailing 7-3 right before half before turning it on a beating a beat up Steelers team by 11.
I trust the Colts’ excellent staff and don’t mind at all backing a veteran QB like Philip Rivers in a road playoff game with limited fans. The Bills rank 17th in run defense DVOA, 19th in adjusted line yards, and 29th in explosive run plays allowed to RBs. As long as the Colts can slow down Buffalo’s early onslaught and are able to run the ball with Jonathan Taylor and a steady hand with Rivers in the passing game, I think this is a tight game.
The Colts are a really solid team and rank 10th in overall DVOA and eighth in Pythagorean wins (based on point differential). It will also certainly help that slot wizard Cole Beasley will most likely miss this game. I have this modeled at 27-23 and believe the line is 2-3 points too high.
Washington Football Team +8.5 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa has shown all season that they are the most volatile team in the NFL. They are capable of losing this game or winning the Super Bowl. This is evidenced by their 32nd variance ranking by Football Outsiders. The obvious matchup here is with the Washington defensive line against Tom Brady. Considering the Bucs’ passing offense consists of slow-developing, deep shots, having time in the pocket is mandatory to be successful.
Washington has the No. 2 ranked DVOA defense and ranks seventh in pressure rate. Tampa has faced four teams that rank in the top 10 in DVOA defense (New Orleans 2x, Chicago, Rams) and lost all four. In those games, Brady went 96/163 (59%), five touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a poor 5.6 ypa. Brady ranks 28th in the NFL in passer rating when under pressure and 36th in adjusted completion percentage.
It’s not a mystery that most QBs struggle under pressure but the splits between pressure and clean pocket for Brady is as large as any QB in the NFL. In fact, out of 32 QBs, Brady ranks 27th, 29th, and 28th when it comes to ypa, INT% and passer rating difference between throwing under pressure versus a clean pocket. Potentially not having Mike Evans, or at least a hobbled Evans, will force Brady to be a bit more accurate.
This is not a reason to take Washington here but it does have to at least raise an eyebrow that the largest home underdogs in NFL history have not only covered but won outright. Motivation and perception can matter in a playoff game. My model has this game as Tampa -6 so plenty of value over the key number here.
Baltimore Ravens/Tennessee Titans over 54
I have pounded the over in many Tennessee games this season and won’t stop now. Titans games have gone over the closing total in all but three of their games this season. The only opponents in which the over did not hit were some of the worst offenses in the NFL (Denver, Jacksonville, Chicago with Foles). It’s not surprising considering they are the only team in the NFL that ranks in the top-five in both offensive and defensive DVOA.
The first meeting against the Ravens ended with 54 points (30-24) but needed OT to get there. Digging a bit deeper, however, and you can see that realistically there should have been closer to 60 points scored. The teams combined to score points on 11 of 18 non-kneel down drives (61% of drives ended with a TD or FG compared to NFL average of 41%) with six combined field goals. Four of these field goals occurred inside the 15-yard line. These teams scored a combined three touchdowns out of seven red zone appearances (43%) after averaging 76% and 63% on the season. Realistically, two of the four field goals inside of the 15-yard line normally would have converted into a touchdown, therefore increasing this total to closer to 60.
The Ravens’ defense has played excellent down the stretch but they have always historically dominated bad offenses. Lets not forget they allowed the Browns to score 42 points just four games ago. This is a defense that has allowed 42 to Cleveland, 30 to Tennessee, 28 to Philadelphia, 34 to KC, and 21 to Pittsburgh so they are not the same defense as last season.
New Orleans Saints -9.5 vs Chicago Bears
This handicap comes down to the Bears’ final month “hot” stretch and why it’s a total mirage. Mitchell Trubisky has played very well but that’s been against a very easy set of opponents. In fact, when you also take his first three starts of the season, he has yet to face a defense that ranks in the top 13 in DVOA. The toughest defenses that he has faced are the Falcons (14th) and the Packers twice (17th). In those three games, he has produced a very poor 5.6 ypa, five turnovers, and only 1.96 points per drive (league average is 2.26). He has consistently feasted off bad defenses but has yet to prove he can consistently play well against a defense like the Saints that rank second in DVOA defense and third-best in pass defense.
The Saints will be able to score on this Bears defense and most likely getting back both RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas definitely helps here. The Bears defense ranks 23rd in EPA per play and 31st in EPA per dropback since Week 8. The Bears rank 21st in pressure rate and Drew Brees has feasted with a clean pocket, ranking ninth-best in passer rating.
Regular Season Best Bets Record YTD: 23-23-4 (50%)
Last week, I closed the regular season with a 5-2 record in my contest, but it ended up being a losing year for me at 55-59-4. I learned how difficult it is to pick the NFL when you are forced to take seven games. I would usually have two to four picks per week that I was confident in, but struggled to find the fifth, sixth and seventh options.
Now it’s time for the NFL playoffs, and we’re immediately treated to a loaded Wild Card weekend with two triple-headers. This week I will give a full preview of the games on a Periscope show I host called Weekend Warriors. The show will be live for an hour on Saturday at 11 a.m. ET and can be seen on Stadium’s Periscope channel or Stadium’s Twitter.
Here are my thoughts for Wild Card weekend.
Colts at Bills (-6.5): The line for this game opened as low as Bills -6.5 and as high as -7.5 when the schedule was set for the playoffs on Sunday evening. It settled in at Bills -7 on Monday and ticked down to -6.5 on Tuesday. The Bills are 13-3, and I wonder if they are currently the best team in the NFL — even better than the Chiefs.
Buffalo’s three losses this season came in a rare Tuesday matchup against the Titans, a rescheduled Monday game against the Chiefs and a barnburner against the Cardinals that required a Hail Mary. Those losses came in odd circumstances, and the Bills finished the season on a six-game win streak with a point spread cover in each victory.
I personally think this line is too high based on recent closing point spreads involving these two teams against the Steelers. The Colts closed as a one-point favorite at the Steelers in Week 16. They lost the game 28-24, but held a 24-7 lead at one point. As for the Bills, they were only a two-point favorite against the Steelers on a Sunday night game in Week 14. Things have changed over the last month, but there’s still line value in the Colts based on those short point spreads. I would’ve preferred this line getting a full touchdown, but I still would play Indianapolis at the current number. Be on the lookout before this game to see if it gets back to +7.
Pick: Colts +6.5
Rams at Seahawks (-3.5): These two teams met at the same stadium in Week 16 and the Seahawks closed as a 1.5-point favorite in a game Seattle won 20-9. The final score was a bit misleading as it was a one-possession game for the first 57 minutes. But with QB Jared Goff now trying to return from a thumb injury and inexperienced QB John Wolford coming off his first career NFL win, the ‘Hawks are currently the favorite at -3.5. Goff has been limited in practice this week and with the line dropping from Seahawks -5, it might be an indication that Goff could play.
Nfl Betting Charts
Regardless of who starts for the Rams this weekend, I like the under. That’s because the Seahawks have been a different team during the back half of the season. In their first eight games, six of them went over the total (the two games that didn’t go over went under by one point). But in their last eight games, the under hit seven times. The only game that went over was last week’s matchup against the 49ers, and that was aided by a 34-point fourth quarter.
The under stretch for the Seahawks started in Week 10 when they played at the Rams, and the game was lined at 55.5, while two weeks ago the total for the two teams was 48. The under is currently set very low at 42.5, but it’s still the only way I can look based on the familiarity between the players and coaches. I prefer to bet this game by looking at the first-half under because the Seahawks are a team that tends to run the ball early, controlling the clock in the process. If the first half goes over the total, I will then look to bet the second-half under.
Pick: First-half under 21
Buccaneers (-8) at Washington: The Buccaneers opened as low as a 6.5-point favorite in this game shortly after Washington clinched the NFC East in the last game of the regular season. Unsurprisingly, the line was then bet up with a resistance point at -9. There has been money showing up on the under that was 46.5 earlier in the week, but it now sits at 44.5 or 45 depending on where you shop.
I agree with the move on the under, and it’s where I will look to play this game. I can see Tom Brady and the Buccaneers struggling against a strong Washington pass rush. However, I want to isolate Washington’s team total and bet against their underwhelming offense. Last week, QB Alex Smith and Washington’s offense only averaged four yards per play against an Eagles defense that consisted of backups. I really don’t like this matchup for Washington’s offense since Tampa is stout against the run. Expect for Washington to struggle to get points on the board.
Pick: Washington team total under 18.5
Ravens (-3.5) at Titans: This is the game I’m most excited to watch. The Titans shocked the Ravens in Baltimore last year in the postseason and followed it up with a huge regular-season win in the same building earlier this season. The line for this game has been going back and forth between Ravens -3 and -3.5. The Ravens have won five straight games, while the Titans needed clutch offensive plays to get past the 4-12 Texans and clinch the AFC South in Week 17.
The Ravens’ last three wins were against the Jaguars, Giants and Bengals, so this weekend’s spread might be inflated because of those three bad teams. As for Tennessee, I would consider the Titans a good team, but solely because of their offense. The defense has trouble getting off the field, and they only have 19 sacks this season (four of them came last week). I’m very confident that the Ravens will be able to score in this game.
Will the Titans be able to match the Ravens when they have the ball? Potentially, but it’s not something I feel comfortable betting on.
Pick: Ravens team total over 28.5
100 Most Valuable Football Cards
Bears at Saints (-10): As of Friday morning, I can’t find a bet that I like in this specific game. I personally made this line Saints -9.5, and that’s where the number was Thursday morning before going up to -10. That’s not enough for a value bet on the 8-8 Bears, who backed into the playoffs because the Cardinals lost to the Rams in Week 17.
I’m undecided on the total in this game at 47. The Bears have transformed into an over team in the last six games, but a lot of their offensive success was against the worst defenses in the league like the Lions, Texans, Vikings and Jaguars. The Saints defense is a huge step up in class for QB Mitch Trubisky, and I’m not sure if Chicago will be able to score enough to help this game reach the over.
The bet related to this game that I’m taking is a future on the Saints to win the NFC. If the favorites win in the NFC this week, then the Saints would host the Seahawks, and that’s a game in which I would like New Orleans. If the Rams beat the Seahawks, and the Buccaneers win on Saturday, then Tampa Bay would travel to New Orleans next weekend and the Saints have handily beat the Buccaneers in their two meetings this season. I really like the path for the Saints to at least get to the NFC Championship. It would be an added bonus if the Packers lost next week so that New Orleans could host the title game.
Pick: Saints to win NFC at +275 or better
Browns at Steelers (-6): The line for this game opened Steelers -3.5, but then news came out Tuesday morning that Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski tested positive for COVID-19 and will not be available. I would argue Stefanski is the most valuable coach in the postseason because he’s also the team’s play-caller. The first-year head coach has done a fantastic job getting the most out of the Browns’ offense, so not having him on the sideline is a significant downgrade for Cleveland. There are other COVID-19 issues with the Browns, including Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio testing positive and the team not being able to practice at their facility.
Nfl Betting Software
If everything was perfect, then I think Steelers -3.5 would be a good number for this game. I just can’t find a way to bet the Browns given the circumstances. There is a player prop I am eyeing in this matchup, but those aren’t available for this game at the time of writing. Check my Twitter on Saturday or Sunday morning, and I will tweet out what I bet from this game.
Sports Betting Cards
Pick: Pass